Monday, November 28, 2011

The Bearish Case For Gold

GieĊ‚da na Wall StreetImage via WikipediaMany are seasoned to believe that now is the time to start piling all of their money into gold. The world hears the terrible financial news that seems to be coming out of Wall Street each and every day. It is not like things like this can be ignored forever. Individuals feel that they need to be making smart moves in order to preserve and make money in a market like this. One of the classical thoughts is to put money into gold.

Gold has always been thought of as a safe haven investment during turbulent times. It often trades paradoxically to the value of the dollar. The value of the dollar often falls during periods of economic turmoil. Therefore, one would assume that gold should be trading up during times like this. The fact of the matter is that it has. In fact, gold has increased in value during the last 10 years more than almost any time in history. This is the very reason why it is not a great investment now.

We all know that no investment can continue to rise in value forever. The ones that rise the fastest in a short amount of time are often the ones that fall the sharpest when the party is over. Therefore, it is probably not a great idea to put a lot of money to work in gold. However, there is more than just a rapid rise in price that should worry gold investors.

The gold markets are seemingly unstoppable at the moment. They are pricing in a worldwide recession the likes of which could be nearly impossible to climb out of. There are many things that indicate that the price of gold could climb even higher at some point in the future. However, the price right now is already somewhere that it shouldn't be at. It has become the popular trade on Wall Street, and that means that it has climbed even beyond the wildest dreams of those who think that the market is going to decline rapidly.

There has actually been some good economic indicators that have been coming out of Wall Street. These include signs that the employment market is starting to become a little stronger. It is also true that companies are beginning to report stronger revenue. These are just the early signs of a recovery of course, but they point to the idea that the economy may be starting to heal. It will likely be a long time before there is significant sustainable growth, but the early signs are there. With this, the price of gold may well decline as the market gets healthier and more investors decide to take on more risk. There is a significant likelihood that this could be the case in the next 3-5 years.

Gold is simply not the best play to make at a time like this. There are other options available to those who are serious about making a profit in this choppy market. Perhaps even purchasing stocks themselves would be a better move at the moment.

Petrusia Kowal is a commodities trader in Toronto, as well as a music teacher. People often pay attention to one end of the situation, and forget about the other. Be aware of the countless opportunities in a sluggish market. This is the likely the perfect time to refinance your auto insurance. Other financial products like credit cards and mortgage rates also often get quite competitive in such markets. Visit Kanetix to do some comparison shopping, and determine if you're getting the value that you deserve.

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